While playing at the Showboat recently another player noticed that I was taking notes and asked how often I drew two pair in an hour. His reason was that he noticed another person playing Double Bonus (DB) and thought that player was giving up an awful lot of small wins in chasing the bigger bonus payouts. Of course, this gentleman was correct, though Showboat does offer some Double Bonus machines that return over 99% (as good as any that you will find in Atlantic City these days), but I couldn't offer him the exact statistics that he requested. However, having just purchased Frugal Video Poker I was looking at expected returns for different video poker games and thought I would share my the data that this gentleman requested.
Assuming a reasonably rapid and steady (that not insanely fast) pace of play, at 800 hands per hour playing perfect strategy you should expect to finish with two pair 103 times per hour playing 9/6 JoB (12.93% of the time), 95 times per hour playing 9/7/5 DB (11.89% of the time), and 98 two pairs per hour playing 9/6 DDB (12.31% of the time). Assuming a more leisurely pace of 600 hands per hour, which was closer to the speed I estimate this man was playing, the number of two pairs per hour ranged between 78 for 9/6 JoB to 71 for 9/7/5 DB.
Those are a lot of credits to give up for a chance at the mini-jackpots that these Double Bonus games offer, but that goes a long way to explain why your results will vary so much more over the short run from playing these games and why your gambling bankroll needs to be robust enough to cover those swings.
1 comment:
Some people might say that 800 hph IS insanely fast, especially with perfect strat. :-) But, I get your point.
I think I am going to begin a log of JUST my flush draws. I'm going to check off: 1. Completed 4FL 2. Uncompleted 4FL and 3. My least favorite hand in all of VP -- dropping a low pair to draw to 4FL and the third of that pair fills in on the draw. Oooooo, I hate that one!
I keep very accurate financial records of my play but I don't keep any hand logs. But, I do know one thing from many hours at the machines. You must get your average share of ALL hands to fill in to make money (with promotions) or nearly break even (without promotions).
That's why I often say, "I'll two pair myself to $1000. I don't care how I win." How often does one get one or even TWO SF in a single session, but if you don't also get your fair share of 4oaks and lesser hands -- you lose. Even a RF. If you hit one right away. Great. Pack up and leave if you're not playing positive, because that RF can get eaten away in a few hours without that fair share of 2 PR and filled in flushes.
NOTE: Yes, I, as a compulsive VP Player am taking this time to vent my VP frustrations.
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